SPC Oct 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the
upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly
flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from
southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may
develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New
York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today
or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVqcGp

SPC Oct 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. this evening and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is in place over the northeastern
third of the nation, with west-northwesterly flow located over the
remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in
along the Gulf Coast, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening and tonight, mainly across the Florida Peninsula.
Scattered storms will also be possible ahead of a shortwave trough
in the Northeast, and across parts of the Four Corners region. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through
daybreak on Thursday.

..Broyles.. 10/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVqQKy

SPC Oct 7, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a
robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight.
While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep
lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50
mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level
static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall
severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVqJSk

SPC Oct 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf
east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVq518