Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.
...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf
east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.
...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.
..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026
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