Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.
..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/
...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.
...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.
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