Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.
...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows broad troughing with several
embedded perturbations stretching from eastern Canada to the
southern Plains. Several of the more prominent shortwave troughs are
forecast to merge over the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley
later this evening. This will help intensify a belt of strong
mid-level flow over the Appalachians and eastern Seaboard later this
evening.
At the surface, a cold front was observed from New England, along
the Appalachians to the Gulf Coast, with a second front moving
across the Plains. As these fronts move eastward this evening, they
should serve as the primary foci for shower and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours.
...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
A moist surface air mass in place along and east of the front slowly
moving over the Appalachians. As the upper low approaches
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later tonight
especially from the Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New
England. Strong winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but
near-surface buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited. As such,
the surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of damaging
winds is expected to remain low. Nevertheless, the strong flow
aloft, and scattered thunderstorms would not rule out an occasional
stronger wind gust overnight. This appears most likely across
DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ where the highest storm coverage is
expected through 6-12z.
..Lyons.. 11/06/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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