Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and
continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD
#2349 and Tornado Watch #677.
..Weinman.. 10/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/
...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.
As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen
significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.
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