Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential
to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period
from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.
...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall
near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias
approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread
across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will
develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is
forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the
coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east
of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which
will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes.
The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period
as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026
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