Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.
..Weinman.. 10/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/
...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.
Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.
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