Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.
...NM/Far West TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over southwest AZ,
and a pronounced shortwave trough in the southeast quadrant of the
low over northern Mexico. This feature will rotate northeastward
today across southern New Mexico and West TX, aiding in the
development of strong/severe storms.
Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will occur
through the day over central/northern NM in advance of the
approaching upper trough. Relatively cool air aloft and pockets of
daytime heating may result in sufficient destabilization for a risk
of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail. This activity will
spread northeastward into a progressively less favorable air mass
for severe storms by early evening.
Farther south, more abundant sun/heating is expected with
temperatures warming into the 80s over southern NM and the Trans
Pecos region of TX. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is
expected - mainly after 18z. Strengthening southeasterly low-level
winds and favorable deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercell
storm structures capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
Forecast hodographs also suggest sufficient low-level shear for a
tornado or two if discrete storm mode can be maintained. It appears
the main risk will weaken after 01z with the onset of nocturnal
cooling.
..Hart/Dean.. 10/24/2026
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