Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts, and an
isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico,
southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
...20z Update...
Latest HRRR/RRFS TLE guidance suggests that a locally more favorable
corridor for left-split supercells may manifest across portions of
central/east-central NM to the north of ongoing convective
development along the Sacramento Mountains. Given the risk for large
to very large hail likely to accompany persistent, left-split
supercells, the existing CIG1 group for hail was expanded eastward
across portions of central/eastern New Mexico to capture this
corridor. No other changes were made to the existing outlook with
this update as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers.. 10/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026/
...NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject
north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new
closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will
develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave
trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and
central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the
baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for
thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.
Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon,
so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely
scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation).
Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming
temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will
persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor
supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into
small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe
outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late
afternoon and diminish by early tonight.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TW2Z2L
