Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat
will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern
Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas
extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest
Texas, and this activity will likely continue to move
east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although
moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas,
instability is weaker near the boundary, along the potential track
of the severe line segment approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. In
spite of this, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 40 to
50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which will support
organized thunderstorm development. Although supercells will be
possible early this evening, it appears that the predominant mode
will be linear. The more intense line segments could produce
damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as
the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal
threat may continue into the overnight period across part of the
Ozarks.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
On water vapor imagery, it appears that multiple weak shortwave
perturbations are moving through a ridge in the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from western
Tennessee extending northeastward into the central Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front with the greatest
convective coverage in southern Kentucky. These storms are located
near an axis of instability. Along this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are mostly in the
70s F. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat limited, the moist and
unstable environment may be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts
over the next hour or so.
..Broyles.. 10/15/2026
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