Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.
...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly
east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a
lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central
High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee
cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary
front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late
afternoon.
Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong
heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon,
along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and
along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development
is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least
isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High
Plains.
Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level
low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell
development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are
expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in
low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or
two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be
possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern
IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to
increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.
...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will
move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation
will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast
of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich
low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and
southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and
lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.
Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature
will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection,
though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due
to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and
possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based
storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the
threat remains low at this time.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026
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