Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous
United States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough
over the West. A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will
move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight. Strengthening
low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will
favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight.
Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated
buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding
small hail risk with the strongest storms.
Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing,
aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a
strong gust or two is possible.
..Smith/Guyer.. 10/12/2026
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