Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with
isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region.
...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern
Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to
visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.
...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.
..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026
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