Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear
possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon
and evening.
...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed.
..Wendt.. 09/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026/
...NE/IA...
A broad upper ridge remains over much of the central/southern US,
with moderately strong westerly flow over the northern tier of
states. A baroclinic zone extends across southern NE into central
IA. This feature will be sharpened by differential heating through
the day, and will be the focus for afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. The strongest cells will be near a 20-30
knot southwesterly low-level jet where warm advection and lift will
aid in convective initiation. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
promote supercell and eventual bowing structures, with damaging
winds be the main concern. Most CAM solutions suggest the majority
of convection will be just north of the surface boundary, which may
limit the overall severe threat. Also, weak mid-level lapse rates
and warm temperatures aloft will tend to diminish the hail risk.
...CO/KS...
Farther southwest, hot surface conditions will result in a deeply
mixed boundary layer. Scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form from eastern CO into
western/central KS, with gusty and occasionally damaging wind gusts
possible.
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