Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected into tonight over northeast Colorado into parts of western
Nebraska, including the Panhandle. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds remain possible overnight across a broader
portion of the northern and central Plains. Damaging wind potential
is expected to diminish within the next couple of hours over
portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.
...Northern and Central Plains...
Separate clusters of thunderstorms, including supercells, are
ongoing this evening over the NE Panhandle into northeast CO ahead
of a weak mid-level disturbance moving through WY and north-central
CO. The 00Z LBF sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates with
MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg along with a vertically veering wind
profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. As such, expect the
supercell threat to persist for the next hour or two, prior to
storms merging into a larger complex along a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. Large hail up to two inches will be the
main hazard in the near-term; however, the potential for severe wind
gusts will become more prevalent if an organized cold pool can
evolve.
Elsewhere, storms are widely scattered across the Dakotas with the
00Z ABR sounding indicating a moderately unstable, but capped air
mass for surface-based parcels. Additional, elevated storms appear
possible overnight along the low-level jet axis with a risk for
isolated occurrence of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Central Georgia into southern South Carolina...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from south
of Atlanta into southern SC, along an outflow boundary remnant from
storms earlier today. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts
remain possible for the next hour or two before low-level lapse
rates begin to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
...Kentucky...
A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently intensified south of
the OH River, east of Owensboro, in the vicinity of a weak surface
boundary, and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the
area from the north. Regional 00Z soundings indicate the air mass
remains moderately unstable with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear.
The ongoing storms will remain capable of strong wind gusts for the
next hour or so before the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
..Mead.. 09/06/2026
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