Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, posing mainly a risk for
severe wind and hail, remains possible into the overnight hours
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes.
...01Z Update...
...Mid Atlantic...
A convectively generated or augmented mid-level perturbation
continues to migrate east-southeastward across the upper Ohio
Valley, toward the northern Mid Atlantic, along the southern fringe
of broadly cyclonic flow overspreading the Northeast. This
continues to provide support for a clustering of stronger convective
development currently in a corridor across east central Ohio into
south central Pennsylvania. Although this activity appears to have
waned some in intensity from earlier, updraft inflow emanating from
a more moist environment, along and south of a diffuse remnant
outflow boundary across the central Maryland through Delmarva
Peninsula vicinity, might reinvigorate activity later this evening
into the overnight hours.
...Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region...
Convective evolution into and through the overnight hours remains a
bit unclear. An initial cluster of convection, supported by a short
wave impulse now progressing toward the Minnesota/Ontario border
vicinity and Lake Superior, is undergoing substantial weakening as
inflow becomes more stable to the cool side of a quasi-stationary
frontal zone, which roughly extends from the Red River Valley
through southern Great Lakes region.
Upstream, near the crest of building mid/upper ridging,
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is supporting scattered
renewed thunderstorm development across northwestern and west
central Minnesota. Closer to the frontal zone, where the inflow
environment is characterized by moderate to strong instability,
there still appears potential for the evolution of a small
organizing cluster across the Brainerd MN vicinity through mid to
late evening. As this progresses eastward, it is not clear that
this will be maintained overnight. A strengthening southwesterly
low-level jet may focus additional upscale growing thunderstorm
development downstream, across parts of northeastern Wisconsin into
Lower Michigan, but, elevated to the cool side of the frontal zone,
it is not clear that the environment will support more than very
limited potential for severe hail and wind.
..Kerr.. 09/04/2026
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