Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.
...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.
...TX Panhandle into northwest OK...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will reside
over the southern High Plains downstream of an upper trough over AZ
and northwest Mexico. A moisture plume is evident in early morning
surface observations (mid 60s to near 70 deg F) and GPS PW sensors
extending from the middle coast of TX northwestward into the eastern
part of the TX Panhandle. A mid to high-level cloud canopy,
extending from the sub-tropical Pacific through the eastern portion
of the larger-scale upper trough, will continue to overspread the
northwestern envelop of richer moisture over the southern High
Plains. Coincidentally with this mid to upper-level moisture and
episodic shower/thunderstorm activity, mid-level lapse rates will
remain modest and stronger boundary layer heating will likely be
partially thwarted, especially with westward extent. Nonetheless,
models show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon over
northwest TX into western OK. Southeasterly low-level flow veering
to southwesterly and strengthening to 25-30 kt at 500-mb will
support some updraft organization potential, and the possibility for
a couple of weak supercells to develop later this afternoon. The
notion for a couple of semi-organized cells is seemingly supported
by recent MPAS and REFS-based guidance from near the Caprock
northeastward through northwest OK and perhaps adjacent portions of
KS.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/24/2026
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