Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians.
...Southern Appalachians...
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the
system, a surface trough will be in place from central Alabama
northeastward into eastern Tennessee. Surface dewpoints near the
trough will be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will help MLCAPE
increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg by afternoon. As low-level
convergence becomes focused this afternoon along and near the
trough, scattered thunderstorms will form. RAP forecast soundings
near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40
knot range, with steep low-level lapse rates. This may support a
potential for isolated severe gusts and hail with the stronger
multicells. The severe threat should be concentrated around peak
heating.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/23/2026
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