Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible this evening across parts of the central Plains and Lower
Missouri Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
Intermountain West, with southwesterly flow aloft from the southern
and central Rockies eastward into much of the Great Plains. A
shortwave trough appears to be located in central Kansas, close to
the position of a front oriented from southwest to northeast across
the central Plains. Near and to the southeast of the boundary,
surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. The RAP shows an axis of
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from central Kansas
northeastward into northwest Missouri and southern Iowa...see MCD
2312. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing along the
southwestern part of this corridor of moderate instability...see MCD
2311.
The 00Z sounding at Topeka has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear around 20 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate just above 7.5 C/km.
RAP analysis suggests that deep-layer shear is stronger near the
front. The environment will support a continued severe threat this
evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the
primary threats. The line that is currently developing in northeast
Kansas may continue to have a severe threat later this evening as it
tracks northeastward into northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa.
A marginal wind-damage threat will extend southwestward along a
surface trough into parts of west Texas.
In the central High Plains, the western edge of moderate instability
extends westward into far western Kansas. Scattered strong storms
are ongoing near the Colorado-Kansas state line where the RAP has
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. The Goodland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in western
Kansas near 7.5 C/km. This will support a supercell threat this
evening with a potential for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts
will also be possible...see MCD 2313.
..Broyles.. 09/20/2026
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