Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind
gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few
tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic
occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies
into northern High Plains today into night.
...Northeast States...
A complex but potentially active convective day is in store for
parts of the northeast US today. A fast-moving MCS and associated
mid-level shortwave trough is over Lake Michigan. This system is
forecast to track rapidly eastward across Lower MI and southwest ON
this morning before emerging into western NY/PA this afternoon. A
consensus of overnight CAM solutions indicate this will be the focus
for strong-severe thunderstorms that track east-southeastward during
the afternoon and evening toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ample
low-level moisture is present in this corridor. This along with
daytime heating well into the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates
will favor damaging wind gust potential in the strongest storms. A
north-south surface boundary is expected to lie from central NY into
east-central PA this afternoon, where low-level shear will be
locally enhanced to pose some risk of a few tornadoes.
The primary uncertainty for a more widespread severe event today is
the presence of considerable morning convection currently over
northwest PA and western NY. These storms are well-ahead of the
main forcing feature, and decrease confidence in significant
destabilization over the primary risk area this afternoon. These
early storms may pose a damaging wind and hail risk through the day,
especially after a few hours of heating.
...MT...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
mountains of southwest MT this afternoon. Strong winds aloft and
steep low-level lapse rates will aid in the risk of damaging wind
gusts as the activity spreads northeastward through the early
evening.
...CO/WY...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
mountains of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity
will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where
inverted-v thermodynamic profiles are expected with 40-50 t-td
spreads. This may result in locally damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Dean.. 09/02/2026
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