Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains.
...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing over the Great Basin and central
Rockies will gradually shift eastward with falling heights spreading
east across the central Great Plains and lower MO Valley through
daybreak Sunday. A cold front draped in a general west-southwest to
east-northeast orientation from central High Plains to the mid MS
Valley will slowly push south. A seasonably moist airmass ahead of
the boundary over KS/MO into northwestern OK will become moderately
unstable by mid afternoon. Scattered storm development is
eventually expected during the late afternoon and early evening as
convective inhibition is locally eroded. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates
(8.5-9.5 deg C/km) will aid in storm vigor and the potential for
strong evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Have
introduced an intensity level 1 for the wind hazard (60-75 mph
gusts) where a combination of HREF ensemble guidance and higher PW
and lapse rates overlap. A few short-lived supercells are possible
given the adequate speed and directional shear according to model
forecast soundings across the KS vicinity. Large hail will be
possible with the stronger updrafts. This threat will likely
diminish during the evening.
...Central High Plains...
The airmass north of a cool front will heat/destabilize through
mid-late afternoon ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough
impinging on the region from the west. Some easterly component to
the low-level flow will aid in maintaining a fetch of sufficient
moisture (mainly 50s deg F surface dewpoints) into much of the
central High Plains. Models indicate scattered storms developing
near/east of I-25 with increasing storm coverage expected through
the early evening. With time, a loosely organized band of a storms
(including some supercells) will probably grow upscale and
transition to a linear cluster as it moves east across eastern CO
into western KS. Have included 15-percent wind probabilities across
eastern CO to account for this favorable storm mode evolution for
severe gusts. There is some indication this activity may continue
into western KS during the late evening and early overnight,
prompting the inclusion of low severe-wind probabilities.
Uncertainty remains regarding the character/intensity of this
activity across western KS (e.g., 19/06z MPAS-HT), especially if the
depth of post-frontal airmass and near-surface static stability are
similar to the 19/06z NAM depiction.
...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the
northeastern third of the U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of
low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward
into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is
expected to be in place by afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered
storms are forecast during the afternoon. A few of the stronger
downdrafts may be capable of a strong to locally severe wind-gust
threat (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/19/2026
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