Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND FAR NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the
central Plains and Midwest, with the greatest remaining threat
expected from western into central Iowa.
...Western/northern KS into southeastern NE/IA/northwest MO...
A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from western
KS into eastern NE and western IA. The western portion of this band
may pose a localized severe-wind threat through dusk across
western/northern KS, in the presence of a remnant well-mixed
boundary layer and moderate deep-layer flow.
Farther east, a narrow corridor of rich low-level moisture and
moderate buoyancy resides from northeast KS/northwest MO into far
southeast NE and southwest IA. Low-level shear/SRH remains locally
enhanced across in the vicinity of the effective warm front,
conditionally supporting tornadic supercell potential. However,
ongoing convection has already become outflow dominant, and residual
downstream MLCINH may continue to limit surface-based supercell
potential this evening. Even if tornado potential does not evolve,
the environment otherwise remains favorable for damaging winds and
isolated hail as storms move eastward through the evening.
Convection will become increasingly elevated with eastward extent
late tonight, though the strongest cells/clusters may remain capable
of producing isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts into
the early morning hours. Other bands or clusters of elevated storms
will also be possible in the wake of earlier convection across the
central Plains, with moderate elevated buoyancy potentially
supporting a brief/localized severe threat overnight.
..Dean.. 09/15/2026
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