Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NE
AND WESTERN IA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and
evening.
...Eastern NE/western IA...
A strong mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the northern
Plains into the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. A deepening
surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, while a
secondary low may develop along a trailing cold front/surface trough
across the central High Plains. This system will be accompanied by
strengthening deep-layer flow from the central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.
Extensive elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas
and western MN. In the wake of this early-day convection, rich
low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 70s F) is forecast to
stream northward into eastern NE and western IA. This moistening
combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon, while
low-level and deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable
with time. The resulting environment will become conditionally
favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards.
The strongest large-scale ascent will become focused north of the
region by afternoon, and it remains uncertain if heating in the wake
of morning convection will be sufficient to remove CINH within the
most favorable environment. If a supercell can become established
and move through this environment during the late afternoon/early
evening, then large to very large hail, localized damaging gusts,
and tornadoes will all be possible. While most guidance depicts
storm development by early evening, 00Z CAM guidance continues to
vary regarding the potential for sustained supercells, with
relatively quick clustering possible. Even in the absence of
sustained supercell development, the environment will be favorable
for severe hail and damaging wind with any persistent clusters into
the evening.
...Western/north-central KS...
Strong heating is expected near/south of a surface trough across
parts of western/central KS this afternoon. Scattered storm
development is expected by late afternoon from western into
north-central KS. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southwest
extent, but steep low-level lapse rates and 25-35 kt of flow in the
850-500 mb layer will support potential for one or more loosely
organized clusters with at least localized severe-wind potential.
...Four Corners region into AZ...
Scattered storm development is expected later today from western CO
and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM, within an anomalously moist
environment. The strongest mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear
within this region is expected over parts of UT/CO, though it is
uncertain if diurnal heating/destabilization will be sufficient for
an organized severe threat in this area. Some threat for strong
gusts and small to near-severe hail could evolve with the strongest
storms.
Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in generally
disorganized storms. Localized strong gusts will be possible,
especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating occurs during
the afternoon.
...Coastal NC...
A cold front will move southward across NC through the day today.
Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated storm
development will be possible as the front encounters richer moisture
and any sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Deep-layer shear
within a northwesterly flow regime will be sufficient for organized
convection, but poor midlevel lapse rates may limit updraft
intensity and potential for an organized severe threat. Any
sustained storms within this regime could produce locally gusty
winds and small hail.
..Dean/Halbert.. 09/14/2026
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