Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail up to two inches, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes
will continue through the remainder of the evening into tonight from
far eastern South Dakota into portions of Minnesota. Isolated
occurrences of severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible over
parts of the central Plains tonight.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains...
A broken band of thunderstorms has recently developed from far
eastern SD into north-central MN within a relatively narrow
instability axis preceding a surface cold front and dryline. The
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z ABR sounding) atop
boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F is resulting in
MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg. As mentioned above, the corridor of
stronger instability and minimal capping is rather narrow
longitudinally, which suggests the severe weather threat may remain
somewhat limited spatially into tonight.
The KFSD VWP is likely indicative of the ambient kinematic
environment, which features 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear and
relatively strong low-level shear, supportive of a supercell storm
mode with the primary hazard being large hail up to two inches.
Tornado potential will be conditional on the maintenance of
semi-discrete supercells residing within the narrow axis of minimal
convective inhibition. Damaging wind potential may tend to increase
by late evening as thunderstorms evolve into line segments.
Additional storms appear possible late this evening into tonight
ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front over portions of eastern
and central NE. Similar to locations to the north, a relatively
narrow zone of minimal convective inhibition and moderate
instability exists ahead of the front, which leads to uncertainty in
the areal coverage and duration of the threat. Severe wind gusts
will be the primary hazard with any surface-based storms that can
become established, though isolated occurrences of large hail are
also possible.
..Mead.. 09/12/2026
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