Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for widely scattered large hail and a few severe wind
gusts is expected to continue through the remainder of the evening
into tonight over the southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains
of Texas. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible over the
Mid-South and vicinity tonight.
...Texas Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas...
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms, including supercells,
is ongoing this evening between Amarillo and Lubbock amidst a
moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg and
effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, per the 00Z Amarillo sounding.
Hail in excess of two inches was reported earlier this evening near
Amarillo with a more recent wind gust of 65 mph near Plainview.
There is some signal in water vapor imagery for a weak disturbance
moving into the northern TX Panhandle, which may aid in sustaining
the ongoing storms through 03-05Z with a continued risk for large
hail and a few severe wind gusts.
...Mid-South...
Surface analysis indicates a convectively modified front from
west-central AR into middle TN, with a pocket of locally stronger
instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg) near and to the
north of the boundary, per latest mesoanalysis. Forcing associated
with a subtle mid-level disturbance moving through south-central MO
is contributing to a gradual increase in storm coverage this evening
over far southeast MO into northeast AR. Time-lagged HRRR and RRFS
ensemble data suggest that a further increase in storm coverage is
possible late this evening into tonight over northern AR and
southeast MO into portions of northwest TN and western KY. Regional
VWPs indicate 0-6 km shear up to 30-35 kt, which may be sufficient
to support episodic storm organization with an associated risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 09/11/2026
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