Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ARIZONA...AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across
eastern Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe
gusts and hail may also occur across parts of the southern High
Plains and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough continues to push through eastern
IA/northern MO, within the base of extensive upper troughing that
extends from western Canada through the northern/central Plains and
Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Isolated strong
to severe storms are still expected this afternoon and evening
across the Mid MS Valley. Damaging gusts remain the primary risk but
a few instances of hail as possible as well.
Strengthening low to mid-level southerly flow is anticipated from
the southern High Plains through the Mid MO Valley overnight.
Associated warm-air advection will contribute to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from eastern KS across central MO into
west-central IL. Elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong shear
within the cloud-bearing layer will support the potential strong to
severe storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging gusts.
...AZ...
Recent surface observations reveal a reservoir of low to mid 60s
dewpoints across southern AZ. Additional heating/mixing will likely
drop these dewpoints into the 50s later this afternoon, while also
eroding the remaining convective inhibition and supporting moderate
instability (i.e. MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg). Given underlying
questions about convective evolution as the storms move west off the
high terrain, uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage and
intensity remains. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher
wind probabilities. That being said, the risk for isolated severe
gusts (60-80 mph) remains, particularly if a forward-propagating
line materializes.
...Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is still anticipated across the higher
terrain of the Raton Meso before then progressing east-southeastward
into the adjacent High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level
lapse rates could result in a few strong to severe gusts,
particularly if updrafts intensify along a southward-progressing
cold front.
..Mosier.. 08/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026/
...Eastern Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential this afternoon through tonight will be complicated
by ongoing convection/precipitation from eastern KS into the mid MS
Valley. In general, filtered daytime heating will occur along/ahead
of a surface front across these regions through the afternoon, with
this area on the southern periphery of mid/upper-level troughing
over central Canada and the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. An
embedded mid-level disturbance is aiding the ongoing sub-severe
convection. Current expectations are for at least isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and evening in
the gradually destabilizing airmass, with sufficient deep-layer
shear forecast to support some updraft organization. Occasional hail
and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, but evolution
into one or more bowing clusters remains uncertain. A stronger
signal exists for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
late this evening into early Thursday morning across eastern KS into
MO in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime, with a
continued severe hail/wind threat possible given ample MUCAPE and
strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer.
...Arizona...
A seasonably moist low-level airmass (with surface observations
generally in the low to mid 60s) will undergo further heating
through late afternoon. Orographic lift should favor convection
developing over the higher terrain and gradually spreading into the
lower deserts this evening, as modest mid-level easterly flow
persists to the south of upper ridging centered over the Southwest.
Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a risk
for strong downdrafts capable of producing at least isolated severe
gusts (60-80 mph). Considered adding a Slight Risk based on
scattered thunderstorm coverage moving into the lower deserts. But,
given ongoing cloud cover across parts of central/southeast AZ and a
tendency for the mid-level easterly flow to gradually weaken through
the evening, confidence in scattered severe gusts occurring remains
too low for an upgrade at this time.
...Southern High Plains...
Weak post-frontal low-level upslope flow into the Raton Mesa
vicinity will favor widely scattered convective development across
the southern High Plains by mid to late afternoon. Modest
west-northwesterly mid-level flow will favor motions to the
east-southeast into the adjacent High Plains along/near a surface
cold front. With steep lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer expected, evaporative cooling will probably result in a few
storms being capable of isolated severe gusts. A gust of 75+ mph may
occur given the very well mixed boundary layer. Isolated, marginally
severe hail may also occur with the initial cells that develop.
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