Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts
of the northern Great Basin, northern/central Rockies, and
northern/central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts are the main
threat, though some hail is also possible.
...Great Basin and Rockies...
An upper low, and several weak perturbations embedded within a belt
of enhanced mid-level flow with moving across the Great Basin are
supporting scattered thunderstorms across the eastern Great Basin
and Intermountain West this evening. Plentiful monsoon moisture
remains in place contributing to modest buoyancy. This will support
scattered to numerous storms through much of the evening and
overnight. 50-55 kt of mid-level flow, and relatively dry sub cloud
layers will continue to support strong downdrafts with the potential
for severe wind gusts and isolated hail. This appears most likely
across eastern NV and northern UT where the air mass remains the
most unstable. However, sporadic damaging gusts are possible across
much of the Rockies and Four Corners where storms are forecast to
remain active tonight.
...Central Plains...
High-based convection across eastern CO/WY and western NE has
gradually weakened as it has encountered a much drier and more
stable air mass across the High Plains. Isolated strong to severe
gusts will remain possible with this activity, and other
showers/storms emanating from the terrain this evening.
More isolated storms, including supercells, across eastern SD are
expected to continue this evening with isolated hail and severe wind
potential. As the lead shortwave trough continues eastward this
evening, increasing low-level warm advection could support
additional elevated storm development from eastern SD to
south-central ND. Moderate buoyancy atop the stable surface layer
amid 40-50 kts of effective shear would support supercells with
isolated hail possible through the overnight hours.
...AZ...
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing across southern AZ should slowly
drift northwest through this evening within a very hot and
moderately unstable air mass. Vertical shear is weak and a largely
disorganized storm mode is likely. Still, steep low-level lapse
rates will favor strong downdrafts with isolated severe gusts
possible.
..Lyons.. 08/30/2026
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