Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of
northern Minnesota into adjacent portions of the eastern Dakotas, as
well as across southeastern Arizona.
...Upper Midwest southward into the central High Plains...
Radar mosaic shows a loose cluster of mainly occasionally strong
thunderstorm activity over the Red River Valley. This activity has
developed partly in response to isentropic lift downstream of an
eastward-migrating mid-level speed max over the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains. The morning showers/thunderstorms will likely
reinforce a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast over the
region.
Heating in wake of early day cloud cover will foster moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon as mid to upper-level flow
gradually strengthens. The initial storms later today will likely
pose a risk for severe gusts and large hail and perhaps a tornado if
a couple of storms can acquire supercell characteristics and mature
within a moist axis ahead of the front. Otherwise, small clusters
will probably evolve with time and pose mainly a wind/hail threat.
Farther south, lower storm coverage is expected along a surface
trough into the central High Plains. Isolated, high-based storms
will slowly move east within a hot airmass featuring very steep
lapse rates. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger cores
and outflow before these storms wane by mid evening.
...Southeastern Arizona/adjacent New Mexico...
Model guidance continues to indicate a belt of enhanced mid to upper
northeasterlies over northern Sonora into far southeastern
AZ/southwestern NM. Very strong heating resulting in moderate
destabilization and orographic lift will favor scattered
thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the early evening.
Models (e.g., MPAS, HREF) show a cluster or two propagating on
outflow into the lower deserts during the evening with very steep
0-3 km lapse rates preceding this convection. Severe gusts 60 to 75
mph will be the primary hazard.
...Northern Mid Atlantic through western New England...
Along and ahead of a weak cold front, trailing a deepening surface
low migrating northeastward toward the lower St. Lawrence Valley,
boundary-layer destabilization will probably be slowed, if not
inhibited, by weak mid-level lapse rates and early day cloud
cover/precipitation. However, strengthening deep-layer wind fields
and shear will potentially become more supportive of organized
thunderstorm development. If a couple of stronger updrafts can
develop, a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may materialize---contingent on sufficient destabilization occurring
prior.
..Smith/Bentley.. 08/03/2026
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