Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern
Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail
are the primary hazards.
...Central/southern Plains...
The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the
large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow
aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses
southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it
intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer,
will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late
afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in
thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.
Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective
shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be
35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer,
this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail,
most probable across western/southern Nebraska into
northern/possibly western Kansas.
Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more
southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely
evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds
aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear
trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton
Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby
Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading
east-southeastward through the evening.
...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan...
A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig
southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and
Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud
cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector
somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should
occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late
afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin
by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more
prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely
scattered basis.
...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast...
A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated
pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts
and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through
around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal
South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some
strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the
middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026
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