Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MIDDLE GULF
COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the
Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains.
Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley
and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.
...Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian
Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and
lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the
later-day forecast scenario.
That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop
and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near
the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the
east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move
southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be
conducive to some supercells and the development of
east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.
More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional
higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening
south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in
vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient
strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial
supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these
southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility
through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.
...Coastal Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow
aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment
along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving
front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective
shear could support some initial supercells with hail this
afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent
concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend
to wane by around sunset.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the
overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and
probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming
surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool
development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward
propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with
damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss
south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.
...Northern Great Basin/central Rockies...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will
develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some
organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some
of which may pose a severe gust threat.
...Maine...
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in
marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly
mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England
during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and
30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop
and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of
supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026
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