Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible for another couple
hours across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley before
thunderstorm intensity wanes later this evening and overnight.
... 01Z Update ...
Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the United
States this evening. The most intense thunderstorms continue to be a
cluster of southeast moving thunderstorms across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Here, strong instability will maintain a hail
and wind threat for a couple more hours before weakening with the
increasing boundary layer stability.
Elsewhere, a few sporadic damaging wind gusts will be possible with
a weakening line of storms across central Pennsylvania south into
southern Virginia over the next couple of hours as well as across
portions of the southern High Plains where a linear MCS continues to
push south and west.
Across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle northwest into eastern
Wyoming and western South Dakota, strong vertical shear and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE will maintain support for a few large hail stones and a
couple of marginally severe wind gusts.
A cluster of storms across south-central Colorado will be capable of
marginally severe hail and wind gusts for another one or two hours
before weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Across the west, strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible
from northern Utah northward toward far southwest Montana. These
high-based storms will be capable of sporadic downbursts capable of
strong erratic winds.
Lastly, a low probability of marginally severe hail and wind gusts
will remain possible across northern Washington this evening as a
strong mid-level just streak continues to lift northeast into
Canada.
..Marsh.. 08/23/2026
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