Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms posing a risk for generally brief, weak tornadoes
across the southwestern Ohio vicinity probably will begin to
diminish within the next hour or two. Otherwise, locally strong to
severe gusts remain possible this evening in continuing thunderstorm
development across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
parts of the southern Rockies into adjacent southern Great Plains.
...01Z Update...
...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Focused low-level convergence and weak to modest clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs, near a surface low now centered to the
northwest of the Greater Cincinnati area, have contributed to
transient supercell structures within developing convection
downstream of an elongating mid-level low across the lower
Ohio/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. Potential for brief/weak
tornadoes has probably been boosted by near-surface buoyancy
associated with a boundary layer characterized by high relative
humidity and surface dew points in the lower 70s, along at least a
narrow pre-frontal corridor near the southern Ohio/Indiana state
border area into north central Kentucky. However, with the loss of
daytime heating, near-surface stabilization probably will diminish
this threat by 02-03Z.
Otherwise, some intensification of pre-frontal thunderstorm
development still appears possible this evening, southward across
parts of middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama.
Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are rather modest to
weak, seasonably high moisture content is supporting sizable CAPE.
Aided by 20-30 kt deep-layer southwesterly mean flow overspreading
this environment, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
transfer could still contribute to potential for localized damaging
surface gusts.
...Southern Rockies and adjacent southern Great Plains...
Convection developing southward ahead of a weak perturbation within
light northerly flow, into a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer with 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, may
continue to pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into
mid/late evening across parts of southern New Mexico and adjacent
portions of western/southwestern Texas and southeastern Arizona.
..Kerr.. 08/02/2026
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