Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms
with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the
High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is evident in
the Ohio Valley within west-northwest flow. This feature is moving
into the central Appalachians where surface dewpoints are mostly in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is analyzed by
the RAP across much of the region. Low-level convergence is
maximized along a pre-frontal trough in the Mid-Atlantic where
isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing. A secondary max of
convergence is located from central Kentucky into western West
Virginia, along which an organized line segment is ongoing. These
storm clusters are expected to persist for a few more hours.
Ahead of the ongoing storms, the WSR-88D VWPs at Jackson, Kentucky
and Blacksburg, Virginia have 0-6 km shear of about 30 knots with
nearly unidirectional west to northwesterly winds in the low to
mid-levels. The 00Z sounding at Roanoke, Virginia has MLCAPE around
2200 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment
will support a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger
cells this evening.
Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, strong thunderstorms
are currently ongoing along a gradient of moderate to strong
instability, analyzed by the RAP in eastern Missouri. The unstable
thermodynamic environment along with sufficient deep-layer shear
will support an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours
this evening.
...High Plains...
Mid-level flow is west-northwesterly over the High Plains this
evening. According to water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is
located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, a moist
airmass is present over much of the central Plains, where surface
dewpoints are mostly in the 60s F. An axis of moderate instability
is analyzed by the RAP from the northern Texas Panhandle northward
into northwestern Nebraska. Along and near this axis, multiple small
clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing. The strongest
deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP from east-central Colorado
northward into western Nebraska, where 0-6 km shear is estimated to
be in the 30 to 40 knot range. Within this zone, low to mid-level
lapse rates are estimated to be around 7 C/km. This environment will
be sufficient for an isolated severe threat this evening. Severe
wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 08/17/2026
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