Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
An extensive band of showers and thunderstorms currently extends
from northeast NE southeastward across central IA, central IL, and
central IN. These showers and thunderstorms have been supported by
warm-air advection across a relatively broad/diffuse frontal zone
extending from southeast NE east-southeastward across northern MO
and southern IL. Overall coverage and intensity of these showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to gradually wane throughout the morning
as the low-level jet responsible for the warm-air advection weakens.
Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the
amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that
occurs along the southern periphery of this band, ahead of a
well-defined MCV generated by overnight convection across KS and NE.
Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating
between the residual cloud debris from the early morning storms
could result in a warm-front-like zone across southern IA or
northern MO. Where this boundary sets up, its strength, and its
location all still remain uncertain this morning, largely due to the
limited predictability of how the ongoing precipitation evolves. The
airmass along and south of this boundary is forecast to destabilize
and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon.
Additionally, low-level convergence along this boundary should be
augmented by mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV progressing
through the region. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy
will support thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level
flow could accompany the MCV, resulting in enough deep-layer shear
to support organized storm structures with any persistent updrafts.
Strong gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as
with any bowing segments, are the primary severe risk. Presence of
the boundary coupled with southeasterly low-level flow will also
support the potential for a brief tornado, particularly early in the
convective cycle when a more cellular mode is likely.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from IL into OH. These showers
and thunderstorms will likely weaken this morning but associated
cloud cover could reinforce a modest baroclinic zone that extends
from southern IL across southern IN/southern OH and through central
WV/central VA. A modest vorticity max over central IL is forecast to
progress southeast within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow
along and north of this boundary today. Ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum coupled with low-level convergence and afternoon
airmass destabilization will support renewed thunderstorm
development. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong updrafts and
ample moisture could result in a threat for wet microbursts.
...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower CO River
Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four
Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with
orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered
convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then
move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the
central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient
for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.
...Southern NV Vicinity...
Dewpoints are in the 60s across southern CA, the Lower CO River
Valley, and southern AZ. Strong heating will support afternoon
airmass destabilization, combining with the moisture in place to
support moderate buoyancy. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is
anticipated over the southern NV vicinity, supporting the potential
for isolated strong gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 08/14/2026
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