Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours
across portions of the Midwest. Damaging winds will be the main
hazard with this activity. Additional strong to severe storms may
occur from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and across Arizona.
...Midwest...
A bowing line of storms will continue to move east/southeast across
northern OH the next few hours. Occasional damaging gusts will be
possible with this activity before weakening after 04z as
instability wanes across northeast OH/western PA.
Model guidance continues to indicated additional convection will
develop across portions of eastern IA/northern IL this evening. This
activity may develop along residual outflow and a southward sagging
surface front as a low-level jet increases over the next few hours.
Thunderstorm clusters may grow into one or more MCSs moving east
across northern IL into IN and perhaps southern Lower MI.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Damaging wind and hail will be possible with convection moving
across western NE this evening. As ongoing storms track
east/southeast, they will encounter richer low-level moisture and
increasing instability. While stronger capping persisted with
eastward extent, even elevated storms will pose a severe risk as
they track across WW 0549.
Severe potential is less certain with northward extent across the
Dakotas. Low-level moisture will increase during the evening and
overnight hours, but currently, instability remains weak and capping
is strong. Isolated strong cells over northeast MT will continue to
develop southeast into limited instability but stronger vertical
shear. If storms can be maintained and additional development occurs
later this evening/overnight isolated hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible.
...AZ...
Similar to previous days, easterly midlevel flow will support
convection moving westward off higher terrain and across the lower
deserts within weak to moderate instability and steep low-level
lapse rates. Strong to severe gusts will be possible with this
activity.
..Leitman.. 08/10/2026
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