Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
Arizona.
...Mid Atlantic...
Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of
the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and
temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough
passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development
of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA
southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening.
Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result
in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in
southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far
east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several
hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.
...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form
over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters
favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an
increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level
moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong
intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of
damaging winds.
...ND/SD...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across
ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by
late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western
SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible.
...MO/IL/KY/IN...
The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking
eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass
over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but
some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over
east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development
of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could
pose a damaging wind threat.
Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will
result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO
by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this
corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for
supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026
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