Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.
...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.
...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026
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