Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid
Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered
severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains
to the northern Rockies.
...Discussion...
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different
regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern
Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest
threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging
wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from
the Plains to the Midwest.
Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee
troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A
few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through
the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind,
with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused
corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely
extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more
robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep
layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however,
storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward
through the evening.
Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and
eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are
ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will
be for large to very large hail, particularly across western
Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.
Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of
storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro.
This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across
northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms
will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the
evening, with potential for damaging winds.
Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and
northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe
wind and continues eastward towards the coast.
..Thornton.. 07/04/2026
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