Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Isolated severe storms may
also occur across the southern Plains and central/southern High
Plains this afternoon through early evening.
...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks...
Fairly extensive elevated convection exists this morning across
Missouri into western Illinois and eastern Iowa. A positive-tilt
trough over the Corn Belt will continue southeastward today toward
the middle Mississippi Valley, with an enhanced belt of
northwesterly flow aloft overlapping the near-frontal environment as
a cold front spreads southeastward across the lower Missouri Valley
toward the Ozarks.
Related to the early day convection, some uncertainty exists
regarding the north-northeastward extent of the unstable warm sector
later today from northeast Missouri into eastern Iowa/northwest
Illinois. Regardless, a moist air mass will reside ahead of the
front, with moderate to locally strong destabilization expected,
especially across a broad part of central/southwest Missouri into
peak heating, as early day clouds abate.
Aided by the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, effective shear of
30-35 kt will generally exist across the Missouri Ozarks, with
somewhat stronger deep-layer winds/vertical shear (40+ kt) northward
across eastern/northern Missouri into Iowa/Illinois. Some supercells
will be possible. Some hail could occur, and low-level shear/SRH
could support tornado potential as well, mainly across eastern
Missouri and possibly nearby western Illinois/southeast Iowa.
However, damaging winds should emerge as the most prevalent severe
risk as storms spread southeastward regionally through late
afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/northern Texas...
While some thunderstorms and related cloud cover exist this morning,
cloud breaks will lead to intense heating later this afternoon ahead
of a south/southeastward-advancing front. Thunderstorms will likely
redevelop on scattered basis later this afternoon and persist into
the evening. The hot/moist afternoon boundary layer will support the
potential for severe caliber wind gusts regionally. Deep-layer wind
profiles will generally be weak, but somewhat stronger
mid/high-level northwesterly winds could support a degree of storm
organization as storms cluster and spread south-southeastward.
...Front Range/Raton Mesa and central/southern High Plains...
Storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage and
intensity through mid/late afternoon initially near the high
terrain, subsequently spreading southeastward toward lower
elevations. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a
potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail could also occur with the
stronger updrafts in vicinity of the Raton Mesa and near the
Colorado Front Range.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/31/2026
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