Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and southern Appalachians...
A loosely organized band of storms, with some semi-discrete
storms/prior supercell on its southwestern flank around sunrise,
will continue to progress east-southeastward across the Cumberland
Plateau toward/across the Appalachians spine early today. Some
severe risk may exist this morning with the aforementioned storms on
the southwest flank including along the Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia border vicinity, but storm-associated cloud cover
and precipitation will otherwise be an important and somewhat
uncertain factor for destabilization with northeastward extent
regionally later today.
The region will be influenced by some additional large-scale
amplification of the upper trough along the East Coast, with a belt
of notably strong (45-55 kt around 500 mb) northwesterly flow aloft,
as sampled by upstream 12z observed RAOBs from the likes of
Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA, that is expected to spread
southeastward toward the region today. A moist air mass will persist
ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front, with the
strongest destabilization across the southern Appalachians vicinity
and Carolinas. Recovery/destabilization is generally expected across
Virginia in the wake of the early day convection, allowing for
probable severe-storm development into mid/late afternoon. Severe
storms may occur farther north across the Mid-Atlantic within a more
narrow warm sector.
Ample deep-layer shear and moderate low-level shear/SRH will support
a combination of supercells and organized line segments, with a more
discrete mode, and longer duration thereof, expected with the
southwesternmost extent of storms regionally from southern Virginia
into the Carolinas/southern Appalachians. Some tornado potential
will exist aside from a more prevalent damaging wind risk this
afternoon and evening as storms spread toward coastal areas.
...Central High Plains...
A ridge-peripheral low-amplitude/subtle shortwave trough will
influence scattered thunderstorm development later today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain and drift
eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate buoyancy across the
High Plains and upwards of 30-40 kt (stronger northward regionally)
effective shear will support sustained storms. Steep low-level lapse
rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F
will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, aside from
some hail this afternoon and evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/28/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTlP8g
