Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHERN IA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MT...
...SUMMARY...
Severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) remain possible this
evening from eastern South Dakota into northern Iowa and southwest
Minnesota. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts also remain
possible across parts of Montana.
...SD into southern MN/northern IA/far northeast NE...
A loosely organized storm cluster is moving across eastern SD this
evening. Additional intensification remains possible this evening,
as this cluster encounters extreme downstream buoyancy, with MLCAPE
of 4000-5000 J/kg within a very moist (dewpoints around 80 F)
environment. The ongoing cluster has produced measured gusts of
60-80 mph, so any notable intensification could lead to an increase
in potential for gusts in the 75-90 mph range. Isolated hail and
perhaps a tornado also remain possible through dusk with this
cluster. Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should
eventually result in a weakening trend later tonight, though an
organized severe threat could eventually approach parts of southeast
MN/northeast IA into northwest IL overnight.
Farther northwest, a separate storm cluster is moving across
north-central SD, within a similarly favorable environment. In the
short term, this cluster may continue to move east-southeastward
along a surface boundary with a continued severe-wind threat.
Eventually, weakening buoyancy in the wake of the southeast SD
cluster will tend to result in a weakening trend with this cluster.
...Central/eastern Montana...
Strong to locally severe storms may persist through dusk across
parts of central/eastern MT, within a well-mixed environment that is
favorable for severe-wind potential. Increasing CINH will result in
an eventual weakening trend later tonight, though remnant outflows
may still produce strong to locally severe gusts as storms diminish.
...Southern AZ...
Widely scattered storms and increasing outflow may continue to
support strong to localized severe gusts within a very hot and
well-mixed environment across parts of southern AZ. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should keep any remaining threat generally disorganized.
..Dean.. 07/26/2026
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