Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences
of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin
into the northern Intermountain region.
...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far
southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline
farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this
afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer
destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central
CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated
forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will
lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models
feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur
during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe
gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south
along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear
will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts.
...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample
deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system
may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse
rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with
scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over
the coastal plain through the evening.
...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.
...Eastern Carolinas...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered
showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over
southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will
promote additional heating near the coast and moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that
develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a
localized risk for damaging gusts.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/23/2026
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