Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
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