Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from
parts of north Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into southern
Virginia this afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of
damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota.
... Synopsis ...
The base-state mid-level pattern today will feature a western US
ridge and eastern US trough, with a weak closed low over the
northeast Gulf. Within this background flow field, a short-wave
trough will be exiting the Northeast US and a closed low across the
Canadian Prairies will crest the western ridge before digging
southeast late in the day toward the Upper Midwest.
At the surface, a large anticyclone will settle into the Great Lakes
region during the day. On the periphery of this anticyclone, a cold
front will be draped from coastal Virginia to the west-southwest,
before arcing northwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then
into the Upper Midwest. This front will sag south across the eastern
US, while beginning to lift north and east across the Mississippi
Valley and Upper-Midwest. The front will act to delineate a very
warm/hot and moist airmass to the south and west from a cooler/dryer
airmass to the north and east.
... Georgia into southern Virginia and the greater Southeast ...
To the south of the advancing surface front, temperatures will warm
into the low-to-mid-90Fs from northern Georgia into southern
Virginia. At the same time, surface dewpoints of the upper-60Fs and
low-70Fs will be maintained. The result will be an strongly unstable
environment with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg
across the region. Forecast soundings show precipitable water
greater than 1.75 inches across much of the area, with a band of
precipitable water in excess of 2 inches. This, coupled with steep
sub-cloud layer lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) which will support
wind damage potential with any sustained thunderstorm updraft.
Surrounding this area, more scattered thunderstorm development is
expected within the moist and unstable environment. At this time, it
appears a corridor of higher likelihood for thunderstorm development
will extend from southeast Louisiana northeast toward northern
Georgia. This increased thunderstorm activity appears to be
associated with a band of modest convergence in the 850-700 millibar
layer to the north of a weak low across the northeast Gulf. Damaging
wind gusts will be possible with some of these storms.
Another potential area of damaging wind gusts will be across
north-central Florida into far south-central Georgia. Here, HREF
guidance shows an east-northeast expanding band of thunderstorms
emanating from the low over the northeast Gulf.
... Dakotas into western Montana ...
Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper-90Fs to the
low-100Fs during the afternoon to the east of a low-level trough
axis developing in the lee of the Rockies in the northern High
Plains. To the east of this trough axis, HREF ensemble mean
dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs will combine with those hot
afternoon temperatures to support a very unstable environment, with
HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg across the
Dakotas and individual members considerably higher (3000-4000 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid afternoon as convective temperatures are approached and
modest height falls overspread the area. Long, straight hodographs
and effective-layer shear around 40-knots will support supercellular
structures, including storm splits, early in the thunderstorm
convective life cycle. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2
inches, will be possible with these initial storms. However, dry
sub-cloud layers and low-level lapse rates around 9 C/km will
support strong convective outflows that will tend to favor upscale
growth, especially in regions where storm splits interact with one
another. One or more convective clusters will move east-southeast
during the late afternoon and evening continuing the threat for
damaging winds, before eventually weakening overnight.
..Marsh/Weinman.. 07/19/2026
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