Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ...SOUTHEAST MT...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR
INTO SOUTHERN WA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible for portions of the northern
Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona into the early
overnight hours. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts
of south-central Texas.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Severe probabilities have been removed from the Northeast states
with the 01z update. The 00z OKX RAOB indicated ample inhibition,
which should suppress convection the remainder of the evening.
Despite strong deep-layer northwesterly flow and modest midlevel
lapse rates supporting elevated instability, it is unlikely
additional convection will develop overnight as a midlevel shortwave
impulse increasingly moves offshore over the Atlantic.
Some guidance suggests that convection ongoing over southern Lower
MI may continue to develop/percolate southeast overnight across Lake
Erie and into northeast OH/northwest PA within strong northwesterly
mid/upper flow. The 00z PIT RAOB shows steep lapse rates and large
instability. However, inhibition should increase with loss of
daytime heating. An isolated strong storm producing small hail
cannot be ruled out, but overall severe potential appears limited
given time of day and nebulous forcing for ascent.
...Central Texas...
Rounds of thunderstorms will continue overnight as lobes of
convectively enhanced vorticity maxima rotate around the mid/upper
low centered over west-central TX. Low-level warm advection will
persist through the night, maintaining rich boundary layer moisture,
maintaining at least modest low-level instability. Vertically
veering low-level wind profiles will maintain 0-1 km SRH around
100-200 m2/s2, and a tornado or two will remain possible.
...AZ...
Strong thunderstorms could produce locally damaging/severe gusty
outflow winds through late evening. Reference MCD 1628 for
information on short term severe potential.
...MT/WY...
Severe probabilities have mostly be removed from WY and confined to
MT, where modest instability overlaps with strong effective shear
magnitudes. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible through late
evening as convection shifts east toward a better low-level lapse
rate environment.
...WA/OR...
Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight
across central OR into south-central WA. A belt of 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes may provide sufficient support within the
weakly unstable airmass for a couple of strong storms. Steep lapse
rates will favor strong outflow winds with this convection.
..Leitman.. 07/16/2026
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