Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NEW YORK...VERMONT...AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND A SMALL PART
OF WESTERN MAINE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA AND SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and hail will also be possible across portions of
Montana.
...New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic...
The glancing influence of a shortwave trough and associated
mid/upper-level jet streaks moving through Quebec have contributed
to a recent increase in storm coverage and intensity from portions
of the St. Lawrence Valley into northern parts of VT and NH. Owing
to considerable clouds and wildfire smoke, a baroclinic zone is
analyzed from northern VT through central NH to the Southern Coast
of ME. The 00z observed soundings across the region indicate the
presence of a capping inversion at the base of a relatively warm and
dry EML, which casts some uncertainty on updraft intensity and
duration, owing to the deleterious effects of entrainment and
existing convective inhibition.
However, any storms that can become sustained will do so within a
kinematic environment featuring strong deep-layer shear, which will
conditionally support the potential for large hail, damaging winds
with significant gusts to 70-75 mph possible, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. The best potential for that threat to be realized may
be with the rapidly intensifying storms across portions of eastern
Ontario, which are projected to reach northern NY within the next
2-3 hours. As such, severe probabilities have been adjusted in
portions of NY to account for the Ontario storms.
...Montana...
A cluster of supercells capable of large hail has developed this
evening over central MT within a relatively moist, post-frontal
upslope regime within MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, per latest
objective analysis. With time, the presence of large
temperature-dewpoint spreads and a resultant, well-mixed boundary
layer will enhance downdraft potential, leading to a cold-pool
driven convective system with an attendant risk for damaging winds
with gusts up to 75 mph.
For additional near-term guidance, see MCD 1617.
..Mead.. 07/15/2026
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