Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this
evening across parts of south Florida, south-central Arizona, and
western Montana.
...South Florida...
Very moist air is in place across south Florida, where surface
dewpoints are in the 70s F. Warm surface temperatures have enabled a
pocket of strong instability to develop over south Florida. The 00Z
sounding at Miami has SBCAPE around 3500 J/kg. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing from near the instability max
northeastward to near Lake Okeechobee. In addition to the high
surface dewpoints, RAP Forecast soundings in south Florida early
this evening show sufficiently steep lapse rates for isolated severe
gusts. The threat is expected to end over the next hour or so.
...South-central Arizona...
At the surface, an axis of low-level convergence and instability is
located over southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed near the instability axis, and these storms will continue
to move westward across south-central Arizona early this evening.
Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rates
will support a few severe wind gusts.
...Western Montana...
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is located over much of the
northwestern U.S. this evening. At the surface, upslope flow is in
place from the northern High Plains westward to the northern
Rockies. An axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP from the
higher terrain in southwestern Montana into the lower elevations of
central Montana, where SBCAPE has peaked near 1500 J/kg according to
the RAP. Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the northern Rockies. A few of these cells may persist
and move into west-central Montana later this evening. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 07/14/2026
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