Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf
Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will
also be possible in southern Arizona.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States...
A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface
dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this
west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the
WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6
km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for
severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments.
The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594.
...Southern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern
Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona
where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these
storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening.
Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50
degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will
contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to
80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595.
..Broyles.. 07/12/2026
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