Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from
parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A
few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the
southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.
...Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will
be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley,
where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is
expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered
thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into
southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may
develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far
northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface
temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the
20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates,
will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and
early evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.
...Southeast Arizona...
A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern
Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor
of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line,
with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be
favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells,
especially if an organized line can develop.
...Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern
Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along
zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts.
The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability
and low-level lapse rates become maximized.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026
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