Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and
central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and
central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will be build northeastward into
the north-central U.S. today as a trough moves through the central
Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the
central Plains. Low-level convergence will become maximized this
afternoon from eastern Colorado southward into northeast New Mexico.
As surface heating takes place, thunderstorms will form in the
higher terrain near this convergence axis, and move eastward into
the central and southern High Plains. Moderate deep-layer shear and
steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail. The threat may be greatest near
the southern edge of the moist airmass from far southeast Colorado
and southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle, where strong
moisture convergence is forecast during the early to mid evening.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A very moist airmass will be in place today across the central U.S.,
where surface dewpoints will be mostly 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop near
a moist axis extending west-to-east from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Low-level convergence is expected to become
maximized this afternoon along and south of the moist axis. MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range combined with steep low-level lapse
rates will support a potential for severe wind gusts with any short
line segment that can become organized. The severe threat is
expected to be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening,
coincident with the maximum in instability.
...Southern and Central Appalachians...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern and central Appalachians today. As surface temperatures
warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region by
afternoon. Topographic forcing and subtle large-scale ascent near
the shortwave trough will support isolated to scattered convective
development. Thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move
eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe gusts with the stronger multicells.
...Western Florida Peninsula...
Very moist air will be in place over the Gulf today, where surface
dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As temperatures warm, a sea breeze
boundary is expected to form near the coast of western Florida
around midday. Thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as the
it moves inland during the afternoon. Moderate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates will support a few severe gusts.
...Eastern South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota...
An axis of low-level moisture will be in place today from Iowa
north-northwestward into southwest Minnesota and eastern South
Dakota, where surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along the moist
axis. Although low-level convergence is expected to remain weak, a
storm or two associated with a marginal hail threat could develop
and move southeastward along the instability axis in the late
afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/10/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTRgdy
